Oh you didn't know? Trying to shoot over Roy Hibbert is a terrible idea

At this pace, Roy Hibbert will have 574 blocks this season...



...assuming he plays 82 games he will smash Mark Eaton's record 5.6 BPG (456 total) by 118 blocks.

Needless to say, Hibbert won't keep up this pace (career average 1.8 BPG) but it only reminds me that Roy Hibbert is one of the best centers in the league when it comes to forcing defenders into misses (Opponents are shooing 26.3 percent at the rim against him.). The Magic shot just 45.16 percent from the restricted area, a zone they shot over 60 percent from last year.
Obviously one game is a small sample size, but that's all we have to go off of right now, and the Pacers did exactly what they needed to do. Another note would be that's not all Hibbert: That's the force of nature that is the bigs of Indiana. The starting center and forwards of Orlando went 10-29, a 34.5 percentage. Ouch.

Orlando's Shot Performance Vs. Indiana 10/30/13

While the paint isn't the best place to attack the Pacers from Indiana did a great job making sure Orlando was pedestrian from the rest of the court as well, save the left corner three. Last season we saw that it's hard to do more than a 50 percent performance against the Pacers defense with no real liabilities on the floor and a system that encourages crashing the boards without giving up transition baskets. That doesn't look to have changed between this year. Considering you have 7'2" Hibbert, 6'9" David West, and even a 6'8" Paul George finding one way or another to make opposing shooters lives a living hell, it isn't entirely surprising. Yes it was Orlando but anytime you keep a team below their normal average, you are doing something right. Also consider the fact that Indiana didn't force the Magic to shoot any differently than they did last year, they had them to take the same shots but with worse results.

The Pacers playing good defense is no surprise. They won, but for a team that thinks it is going to win the title this year, they are going to have to be more efficient. The Pacers were outscored in the second quarter and went into halftime trailing. Going 8 of 18 and turning the ball over 11 times is no way to go through life son.  On the plus side, George was more efficient than last year finishing at the bucket and shooting threes, but let's wait one, two, or ten games before making any bold proclamations. West actually didn't finish well around the rim but Lance Stephenson showed some improvement.

Just one game. But one win.

By The Numbers: Did the Pacers actually get better?

The Indiana Pacers showed in the playoffs that they were a few pieces (and less than most people thought) away from an NBA championship.

In the off season, the Pacers added Luis Scola, C.J. Watson, Chris Copeland and drafted Solomon Hill.
Gone are Tyler Hansbrough, Gerald Green, and D.J. Augustin.

It seems like all that can be considered upgrades (I will miss Psycho-T, though.), how well do they fit into the Pacers line-up. Honestly, we won't really know until they hit the floor. But we can sift through the numbers, check to see if they are an improvement on the floor, and see where they might find a fit in the Pacers rotations.

Here are a few assumptions I'm making as I do this: The starters will be Roy Hibbert, David West, Paul George, Lance Stephenson and George Hill, with Danny Granger coming off the bench. 

Mr. Tim Donahue expects the same, with Watson and Luis Scola seeing significant playing time and Chris Copeland and Ian Mahinmi coming in situation.

I imagine Solomon Hill will see time, but I don't see him getting time to start the season unless someone gets hurt. (Please not Granger.)
So let's go position-by-position and see what the numbers tell us.

Point Guard: C.J. Watson vs D.J. Augustin

Per Game Advanced What do I see: I think it is a good sign their minutes per a game are similar because if the new additions are having to change their roles, then I worry much more about chemistry and how their performance will fare. But since there is only a three minute per a game difference, let's move on. With the exception of free throw percentage and assists, C.J. is a better player. The advanced numbers are on Watson's side as well: PER 13.9 vs 11.0, a better rebounder, and a more efficient shooter. Similar Usage percentage, but Watson doesn't assist as much, and is a worse defender. But DRtg is strongly tied to team defense, so this may improve. Another good sign are Watson's and Augustin's shot distribution. Watson used mid-range shots more than Augustin, but Watson shoots above the league average from there even if it isn't the most used area, so little worry anyway. The bulk came from the paint and the left and right sides of three-point range. Watson shoots better from all but one (8-16 feet, in the paint) of those areas than Augustin does. Watson's going to take three's like Augustin did, but in theory, he should make more.

C.J. Watson Shot Performance

What I like about all of this is C.J. does many of the same thing D.J. goes on the floor, he just does them better. Watson is also important in another regard: In the 2012-2013 season, the Pacers 5th most used 5-man unit included Augustin running the point with. That unit had a +/- of -17, but I'd like to think was less turnovers (Watson's TOV% 12.1, Augustin's 16.8), that unit, along with the other unit's the used the back-up point guard, will improve. The only possible worry with Watson vs. Augstin, is defense (107 vs 104 DRtg), but as a unit the Pacers scheme, I'd like to think that will improve as well.

Better? Worse? Meh?: Better. What I really like about this is the fact they are very similar players as far as how they are used and how they shoot. C.J. Watson just does it better than D.J. Augustin did. Just about every per a game and advanced stat says Watson is a better player. Considering last year it felt like the Pacers 2nd Unit was not trying to maintain, but fight to see how much of a lead the they could give the opposing team. The fact the the Pacers starting five of Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert were +288 as a unit, league best, and the second team couldn't do more than now blow the lead, was very frustrating. When you put all of D.J. Augustin's units together, you end up with a +/- of -17, which is far from terrible, but let's you know when D.J. was on the floor, the Pacers lead was probably in peril. If it means anything, all of the 5-man Units of Watson when put together yield a +/- of +45 last year with the Brooklyn Nets.
The eye tests tells me, the numbers confirm, and popular opinion say Wastson in an improvement over Augustin. He should probably get around 18 minutes a game, only a minute less than he averaged last year so I don't think it is foolish to think Pacers fans get expect him to do the same at the back-up point guard.


Power Forwards: Luis Scola  vs Tyler Hansbrough
Per Game 

Advanced

What do I see: First let's take a look at the numbers, starting with the per a game stats. Good news! He's better than the beloved Psycho-T! A better rebounder, better shooter, even looking at the advanced numbers he looks more efficient, but maybe not as much of an offensive rebounder. That may change with the Pacers practice of crashing the boards.
However, the question is how will adapt to a lesser role with the Pacers than he had with the Suns. Last year Scola played in the top five used of Phoenix's 5 man units. Hanbrough averaged 16 minutes with the Pacers. Scola will in theory be losing roughly 10 minutes of play, depending on how coach Frank Vogel uses him. Donahue expects Scola to split time the 96 minutes the bigs get with Hibbert (28.7 mpg) and West (33.4 mpg), leaving 62.1 to be split between Mahimi at the five, (16.5 mpg). That leaves just 17.4 minutes to split between Scola and Copeland. Scola did play some center for the Suns, but I doubt Vogel will put him there very much, he didn't with Hansbrough. Even he he gets the bulk of those minutes, like Psycho-T did, that's 10 minutes less than he had in Phoenix. 

Luis Scola Shot Performance

But consider the fact that an improved bench might free up minutes for the starting bigs, meaning more time for Copeland and Scola. (Side note: PG was 10th in the league in minutes per a game at 37.62, hopefully he can rest with Granger's return.) The minutes, and how well the players use them is a question mark at the four (PF), is a question mark, but lets look back at some of the positives. 
When it comes to USG%, Scola (23.3) and Hansbrough's (20.6) numbers are compatible, so as far as role goes, I think Scola will be fine as long as he doesn't mind the reduced minutes
Scola will also open up the paint if his shooting stays the same. Scola will shoot plenty from the paint but Hansbrough shot almost 70% of his shots from the paint, where as Scola has a near 50/50 split between the paint and mid-range. This is a big change over someone like Hansbrough, and maybe it will open up the floor, but that makes it much harder to judge how he will perform.

Better? Worse? Meh?: Better, but with a lot of questions with the minutes being cut for Scola, and how he adjusts. But assuming that works out, the shot performance chart to the right should tell you why this should be a drastic improvement. The yellow means his FG% Comparable to league average, and green is above. When Luis pulls up from mid-range, he's making 45.66% of those shots. When you look at Tyler's shot performance chart, you see almost all red, and in the restricted area Hansbrough may shoot around the league average, but Luis shoots two percentage better from that area. For sure the software is an upgrade at PF position  but seeing how it integrates with the current operating system is yet to be seen.