Showing posts with label Indiana Pacers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indiana Pacers. Show all posts
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Jurassic Frank
Check out this recap of the Pacers loss to the Toronto Raptors on 8 Points, 9 Seconds.
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Friday, December 20, 2013
Foul Play: Miami takes advantage of Pacers big man's absence
The folks over at 8 Points, 9 Seconds gave me the chance to post my thoughts on the way the Heat's offense goes at the Pacers' defense. I was very thankful for the chance. Thank you in particular to Jared Wade.
Click on the link to see what I had to say, and check out 8 Points, 9 Seconds.
Click on the link to see what I had to say, and check out 8 Points, 9 Seconds.
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
NONE SHALL PASS: Roy Hibbert's Effect on the Heat Offense
One does not simply walk into the paint.
Perhaps more accurately, one does not simply drive into the paint when it is occupied by Roy Hibbert.
That was the case on Tuesday night as Hibbert and the rest of the Pacers kept the Heat from doing what they love most and the Pacers came out with a 90-84 win.
The Heat like to shoot just over 41 percent of their shots within eight feet of the basket making around 65 percentage of them. Only problem Tuesday was that's where Hibbert likes to play. We know that the bigger Miami guys like Chris Bosh, Rashard Lewis, Birdman and Shane Battier have to deal with Hibbert in the post, but how does the rest of the team deal with Indiana's big man. The scheme and personnel of Indiana contribute to the defensive effort, no doubt. But look at the season averages versus what Miami did on Tuesday night, and you might expect Hibbert had something to do with the lack of efficiency by the Heat.
NBA.com defines a drive as any touch that starts at least 20 feet of the hoop and is dribbled within 10 feet of the hoop and excludes fast breaks.
The Heat have three players in the top 50 in drives per a game, and two more in the top 100, but when they tried to go to the basket, it wasn't working against the Pacers. LeBron
tried to take the ball to the rack more than usual, but only got one basket on those drives.
Only Norris Cole shot above his average, but the rest were noticeably below. Considering the fact Roy boasts a league best 39.7 average for opponents field goal percentage at the rim. We all know how good Hibbert is at defending the rim, but when they are driving at him, especially when Roy isn't in foul trouble, that would seem to play right into the Pacers game plan. It should be noted that too that LeBron, Wade, and Chalmers all help create points for their teammates when they drive. Respectively when they drive, they help create 6.4, 7, and 5.3 team points for a game. It wasn't as easy for them or their teammates to get points off their drive like they usually do.
Obviously this is only one game, and we are running it back on Wednesday in Miami, but it will be interesting to see how the Heat approach Hibbert as the season wears on.
The Heat are hoping Greg Oden can maybe change up the Pacers approach when they play, but until we see him play, that's a very big if.
Until then, the Heat better find a way to deal with Roy Hibbert's verticality.
Perhaps more accurately, one does not simply drive into the paint when it is occupied by Roy Hibbert.
That was the case on Tuesday night as Hibbert and the rest of the Pacers kept the Heat from doing what they love most and the Pacers came out with a 90-84 win.
The Heat like to shoot just over 41 percent of their shots within eight feet of the basket making around 65 percentage of them. Only problem Tuesday was that's where Hibbert likes to play. We know that the bigger Miami guys like Chris Bosh, Rashard Lewis, Birdman and Shane Battier have to deal with Hibbert in the post, but how does the rest of the team deal with Indiana's big man. The scheme and personnel of Indiana contribute to the defensive effort, no doubt. But look at the season averages versus what Miami did on Tuesday night, and you might expect Hibbert had something to do with the lack of efficiency by the Heat.
| Player | Drives vs IND | Points on Drives vs IND | Percentage vs IND | Season Average Drive Per Game | Season Average PPG on Drives | Season Average Percentage on Drives |
| LeBron James | 9 | 2 | 11% | 5.9 | 4.1 | 62.7% |
| Dwyane Wade | 6 | 2 | 17% | 5.6 | 3.4 | 54.5% |
| Mario Chalmers | 9 | 4 | 22% | 4.8 | 2.5 | 48.6% |
| Norris Cole | 3 | 4 | 66% | 4 | 1.7 | 48.6% |
| Ray Allen | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.8 | 1.8 | 70% |
NBA.com defines a drive as any touch that starts at least 20 feet of the hoop and is dribbled within 10 feet of the hoop and excludes fast breaks.
The Heat have three players in the top 50 in drives per a game, and two more in the top 100, but when they tried to go to the basket, it wasn't working against the Pacers. LeBron
tried to take the ball to the rack more than usual, but only got one basket on those drives.
Only Norris Cole shot above his average, but the rest were noticeably below. Considering the fact Roy boasts a league best 39.7 average for opponents field goal percentage at the rim. We all know how good Hibbert is at defending the rim, but when they are driving at him, especially when Roy isn't in foul trouble, that would seem to play right into the Pacers game plan. It should be noted that too that LeBron, Wade, and Chalmers all help create points for their teammates when they drive. Respectively when they drive, they help create 6.4, 7, and 5.3 team points for a game. It wasn't as easy for them or their teammates to get points off their drive like they usually do.
Obviously this is only one game, and we are running it back on Wednesday in Miami, but it will be interesting to see how the Heat approach Hibbert as the season wears on.
The Heat are hoping Greg Oden can maybe change up the Pacers approach when they play, but until we see him play, that's a very big if.
Until then, the Heat better find a way to deal with Roy Hibbert's verticality.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
The Pacers are playing outta their minds right now
“We want to step away from that shadow as the ‘little brothers’ of this division,” Paul George told NBA.com. “Their success is the Michael Jordan era. This is a new age, this is a new team. It’s ours till they take it.”Baby steps Indiana, baby steps. (or Baby Dragons, if you ask Jason Whitlock.
Yes, it is early, but the Pacers have clearly taken care of business so far. They beat the teams they should beat every time, and they passed the first test of the season. (Grade: A) It is a young season and plenty of things will happen between Game 5 and Game 82, but the Pacers are monsters at the moment.
At the moment, being the key word.
Before we start talking about what's down the road for the Pacers, let's look at where they've been.
A year ago, the Pacers were 2-3 at this point, and I was cursing be decision to purchase NBA League Pass. There wins were over the Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings, and neither looked pretty while they got destroyed 101-79 by the San Antonio Spurs. Roy Hibbert looked like he took the money on his deal and hadn't practiced since. Paul George was the future, but the future looked no more than slightly above average. Obviously the Pacers grew into a team that challenged the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, but they didn't look like much of a team until late in the season.
So what has changed in Indiana?
Well, with the caveat that these are small sample sizes, let's take a look.
Paul George is playing like a monster.
 |
| Paul George through five games |
He's actually shooting more from range than at the basket, which is working well so far for him as he's the league's third leading scorer. Looking at his shot performance, he's doing no worse than average from any part of the court with smart shot selection. He has no hesitation when he pulls up for three pointers, but is still working his way to the basket more than he did last year. Last year he had eight free throws attempts through give games. This year he's averaging 6.4 per a game. Let's hold up superstar talk, but he's certainly updating his resume so far this season. I hate to try to talk about intangibles because I'm not talking to Paul George or watching enough to really guess what his mindset really is, but he looks more aggressive and confident than ever. He looked great in the ECF, but now he looking like and playing like he's one of the league's best. We'll see how long he keeps this going because right now he's playing at a career high level. Even if these numbers fall slightly, he's still showing he's making his way up the chart of the league's best players.
But what else is going on in Indiana so far? What is so different about this year's team that is off to a franchise best 5-0 start.
Roy Hibbert isn't playing like crap, and he's averaging 5.2 blocks a game. rebounding slightly better than last year, and playing better defense even if his offense is slightly down. The Pacers run through the playoffs has earned him the reputation as an elite defender, and so far he's averaging one less foul even with the bad Pelicans game as far as foul trouble. We'll see, but so far it looks like he's getting the benefit of a doubt when he goes to block shots. He has worked on using the NBA's rule of verticality well. When 12.5 percent of plays end in a Hibbert block, their opponents defense isn't going to do very well.
Opponents are shooting under 30 percent at the rim with Hibbert there. It certainly a team effort as the wings help force opponents into bad situations, but those numbers are ridiculous.
Lance Stephenson a year ago was an unknown commodity, even to Pacers fans. He had 35 points through five games and wasn't starting until the seventh game of the season.
This year?
16.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.6 AST, .470 FG% .538 3P%
Like many of the Pacers we saw him grow in the playoffs and right now he, like PG and Hibbert, are playing out of their minds right now. It was natural to expect progression out of this team, but all of this so far has been rather amazing. Lance was a starter for most of last year, but was still a very raw player. Even when he slumped against the Bulls in the first half, he wasn't slacking off on defense or anything. he played through and shot out of it like a good player should. He's been part of the success that maybe hasn't gotten enough attention. We knew Paul George was slated for a break out year and Hibbert was a good interior defender, but Lance so far was somewhat unexpected. He had grown certainly, but I didn't expect him to be a player who was going to start to draw defenders away from the basket like he's going to if he keeps this up. He still drives it to the basket hard and finishes well, but if he can hit a couple of threes a game, and right now he's a 2.8, he's going to help the Pacers offense spread out opposing defenses.
Lastly, the bench is no longer go awful that the sight of Tyler Hansbrough, D.J. Augustine and Gerald Green checking in made coach Frank Vogel cry, knowing any lead the Pacers might have had was about to put down like Old Yeller, but in a more violent, snuff film fashion.
This year, we've even seen C.J. Watson has been able to hold down the point with George Hill taking time off to heal. Indiana's bench is now average, but that's an improvement. If nothing else mentally the Pacers, or at least their fans can know their bench isn't the 29th in +/-. Last year Tyler Hansbrough was the only Indiana bench player with a double-digit PER. This year only Hill, Ian Mahinmi, and Luis Scola have PER's under 10. The league average is 15. I'm not counting Chris Copeland and Rasual Butler because they've played less than 5 minutes.
Again, small sample sizes, but this bench is showing itself to be a definite improvement so far.
Needless to say, we should expect some regression and low points as the year wears on. All these numbers are amazing and the best of these players careers right now for the most part, so that's natural. But what it is showing is that some of the players individual ceilings might be higher than expected.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Oh you didn't know? Trying to shoot over Roy Hibbert is a terrible idea
At this pace, Roy Hibbert will have 574 blocks this season...
...assuming he plays 82 games he will smash Mark Eaton's record 5.6 BPG (456 total) by 118 blocks.
Needless to say, Hibbert won't keep up this pace (career average 1.8 BPG) but it only reminds me that Roy Hibbert is one of the best centers in the league when it comes to forcing defenders into misses (Opponents are shooing 26.3 percent at the rim against him.). The Magic shot just 45.16 percent from the restricted area, a zone they shot over 60 percent from last year.
Obviously one game is a small sample size, but that's all we have to go off of right now, and the Pacers did exactly what they needed to do. Another note would be that's not all Hibbert: That's the force of nature that is the bigs of Indiana. The starting center and forwards of Orlando went 10-29, a 34.5 percentage. Ouch.
While the paint isn't the best place to attack the Pacers from Indiana did a great job making sure Orlando was pedestrian from the rest of the court as well, save the left corner three. Last season we saw that it's hard to do more than a 50 percent performance against the Pacers defense with no real liabilities on the floor and a system that encourages crashing the boards without giving up transition baskets. That doesn't look to have changed between this year. Considering you have 7'2" Hibbert, 6'9" David West, and even a 6'8" Paul George finding one way or another to make opposing shooters lives a living hell, it isn't entirely surprising. Yes it was Orlando but anytime you keep a team below their normal average, you are doing something right. Also consider the fact that Indiana didn't force the Magic to shoot any differently than they did last year, they had them to take the same shots but with worse results.
...assuming he plays 82 games he will smash Mark Eaton's record 5.6 BPG (456 total) by 118 blocks.
Needless to say, Hibbert won't keep up this pace (career average 1.8 BPG) but it only reminds me that Roy Hibbert is one of the best centers in the league when it comes to forcing defenders into misses (Opponents are shooing 26.3 percent at the rim against him.). The Magic shot just 45.16 percent from the restricted area, a zone they shot over 60 percent from last year.
Obviously one game is a small sample size, but that's all we have to go off of right now, and the Pacers did exactly what they needed to do. Another note would be that's not all Hibbert: That's the force of nature that is the bigs of Indiana. The starting center and forwards of Orlando went 10-29, a 34.5 percentage. Ouch.
 |
| Orlando's Shot Performance Vs. Indiana 10/30/13 |
While the paint isn't the best place to attack the Pacers from Indiana did a great job making sure Orlando was pedestrian from the rest of the court as well, save the left corner three. Last season we saw that it's hard to do more than a 50 percent performance against the Pacers defense with no real liabilities on the floor and a system that encourages crashing the boards without giving up transition baskets. That doesn't look to have changed between this year. Considering you have 7'2" Hibbert, 6'9" David West, and even a 6'8" Paul George finding one way or another to make opposing shooters lives a living hell, it isn't entirely surprising. Yes it was Orlando but anytime you keep a team below their normal average, you are doing something right. Also consider the fact that Indiana didn't force the Magic to shoot any differently than they did last year, they had them to take the same shots but with worse results.
The Pacers playing good defense is no surprise. They won, but for a team that thinks it is going to win the title this year, they are going to have to be more efficient. The Pacers were outscored in the second quarter and went into halftime trailing. Going 8 of 18 and turning the ball over 11 times is no way to go through life son. On the plus side, George was more efficient than last year finishing at the bucket and shooting threes, but let's wait one, two, or ten games before making any bold proclamations. West actually didn't finish well around the rim but Lance Stephenson showed some improvement.
Just one game. But one win.
Just one game. But one win.
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
By The Numbers: Did the Pacers actually get better?
The Indiana Pacers showed in the playoffs that they were a few pieces (and less than most people thought) away from an NBA championship.
What I like about all of this is C.J. does many of the same thing D.J. goes on the floor, he just does them better. Watson is also important in another regard: In the 2012-2013 season, the Pacers 5th most used 5-man unit included Augustin running the point with. That unit had a +/- of -17, but I'd like to think was less turnovers (Watson's TOV% 12.1, Augustin's 16.8), that unit, along with the other unit's the used the back-up point guard, will improve. The only possible worry with Watson vs. Augstin, is defense (107 vs 104 DRtg), but as a unit the Pacers scheme, I'd like to think that will improve as well.
Better? Worse? Meh?: Better. What I really like about this is the fact they are very similar players as far as how they are used and how they shoot. C.J. Watson just does it better than D.J. Augustin did. Just about every per a game and advanced stat says Watson is a better player. Considering last year it felt like the Pacers 2nd Unit was not trying to maintain, but fight to see how much of a lead the they could give the opposing team. The fact the the Pacers starting five of Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert were +288 as a unit, league best, and the second team couldn't do more than now blow the lead, was very frustrating. When you put all of D.J. Augustin's units together, you end up with a +/- of -17, which is far from terrible, but let's you know when D.J. was on the floor, the Pacers lead was probably in peril. If it means anything, all of the 5-man Units of Watson when put together yield a +/- of +45 last year with the Brooklyn Nets.
The eye tests tells me, the numbers confirm, and popular opinion say Wastson in an improvement over Augustin. He should probably get around 18 minutes a game, only a minute less than he averaged last year so I don't think it is foolish to think Pacers fans get expect him to do the same at the back-up point guard.
Power Forwards: Luis Scola vs Tyler Hansbrough
Per Game
Advanced
What do I see: First let's take a look at the numbers, starting with the per a game stats. Good news! He's better than the beloved Psycho-T! A better rebounder, better shooter, even looking at the advanced numbers he looks more efficient, but maybe not as much of an offensive rebounder. That may change with the Pacers practice of crashing the boards.
However, the question is how will adapt to a lesser role with the Pacers than he had with the Suns. Last year Scola played in the top five used of Phoenix's 5 man units. Hanbrough averaged 16 minutes with the Pacers. Scola will in theory be losing roughly 10 minutes of play, depending on how coach Frank Vogel uses him. Donahue expects Scola to split time the 96 minutes the bigs get with Hibbert (28.7 mpg) and West (33.4 mpg), leaving 62.1 to be split between Mahimi at the five, (16.5 mpg). That leaves just 17.4 minutes to split between Scola and Copeland. Scola did play some center for the Suns, but I doubt Vogel will put him there very much, he didn't with Hansbrough. Even he he gets the bulk of those minutes, like Psycho-T did, that's 10 minutes less than he had in Phoenix.
But consider the fact that an improved bench might free up minutes for the starting bigs, meaning more time for Copeland and Scola. (Side note: PG was 10th in the league in minutes per a game at 37.62, hopefully he can rest with Granger's return.) The minutes, and how well the players use them is a question mark at the four (PF), is a question mark, but lets look back at some of the positives.
When it comes to USG%, Scola (23.3) and Hansbrough's (20.6) numbers are compatible, so as far as role goes, I think Scola will be fine as long as he doesn't mind the reduced minutes
Scola will also open up the paint if his shooting stays the same. Scola will shoot plenty from the paint but Hansbrough shot almost 70% of his shots from the paint, where as Scola has a near 50/50 split between the paint and mid-range. This is a big change over someone like Hansbrough, and maybe it will open up the floor, but that makes it much harder to judge how he will perform.
Better? Worse? Meh?: Better, but with a lot of questions with the minutes being cut for Scola, and how he adjusts. But assuming that works out, the shot performance chart to the right should tell you why this should be a drastic improvement. The yellow means his FG% Comparable to league average, and green is above. When Luis pulls up from mid-range, he's making 45.66% of those shots. When you look at Tyler's shot performance chart, you see almost all red, and in the restricted area Hansbrough may shoot around the league average, but Luis shoots two percentage better from that area. For sure the software is an upgrade at PF position but seeing how it integrates with the current operating system is yet to be seen.
In the off season, the Pacers added Luis Scola, C.J. Watson, Chris Copeland and drafted Solomon Hill.
Gone are Tyler Hansbrough, Gerald Green, and D.J. Augustin.
Gone are Tyler Hansbrough, Gerald Green, and D.J. Augustin.
It seems like all that can be considered upgrades (I will miss Psycho-T, though.), how well do they fit into the Pacers line-up. Honestly, we won't really know until they hit the floor. But we can sift through the numbers, check to see if they are an improvement on the floor, and see where they might find a fit in the Pacers rotations.
Here are a few assumptions I'm making as I do this: The starters will be Roy Hibbert, David West, Paul George, Lance Stephenson and George Hill, with Danny Granger coming off the bench.
Mr. Tim Donahue expects the same, with Watson and Luis Scola seeing significant playing time and Chris Copeland and Ian Mahinmi coming in situation.
I imagine Solomon Hill will see time, but I don't see him getting time to start the season unless someone gets hurt. (Please not Granger.)
So let's go position-by-position and see what the numbers tell us.
So let's go position-by-position and see what the numbers tell us.
Point Guard: C.J. Watson vs D.J. Augustin
Per Game
Advanced
What do I see: I think it is a good sign their minutes per a game are similar because if the new additions are having to change their roles, then I worry much more about chemistry and how their performance will fare. But since there is only a three minute per a game difference, let's move on. With the exception of free throw percentage and assists, C.J. is a better player. The advanced numbers are on Watson's side as well: PER 13.9 vs 11.0, a better rebounder, and a more efficient shooter. Similar Usage percentage, but Watson doesn't assist as much, and is a worse defender. But DRtg is strongly tied to team defense, so this may improve. Another good sign are Watson's and Augustin's shot distribution. Watson used mid-range shots more than Augustin, but Watson shoots above the league average from there even if it isn't the most used area, so little worry anyway. The bulk came from the paint and the left and right sides of three-point range. Watson shoots better from all but one (8-16 feet, in the paint) of those areas than Augustin does. Watson's going to take three's like Augustin did, but in theory, he should make more. |
| C.J. Watson Shot Performance |
Better? Worse? Meh?: Better. What I really like about this is the fact they are very similar players as far as how they are used and how they shoot. C.J. Watson just does it better than D.J. Augustin did. Just about every per a game and advanced stat says Watson is a better player. Considering last year it felt like the Pacers 2nd Unit was not trying to maintain, but fight to see how much of a lead the they could give the opposing team. The fact the the Pacers starting five of Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert were +288 as a unit, league best, and the second team couldn't do more than now blow the lead, was very frustrating. When you put all of D.J. Augustin's units together, you end up with a +/- of -17, which is far from terrible, but let's you know when D.J. was on the floor, the Pacers lead was probably in peril. If it means anything, all of the 5-man Units of Watson when put together yield a +/- of +45 last year with the Brooklyn Nets.
The eye tests tells me, the numbers confirm, and popular opinion say Wastson in an improvement over Augustin. He should probably get around 18 minutes a game, only a minute less than he averaged last year so I don't think it is foolish to think Pacers fans get expect him to do the same at the back-up point guard.
Power Forwards: Luis Scola vs Tyler Hansbrough
Per Game
Advanced
What do I see: First let's take a look at the numbers, starting with the per a game stats. Good news! He's better than the beloved Psycho-T! A better rebounder, better shooter, even looking at the advanced numbers he looks more efficient, but maybe not as much of an offensive rebounder. That may change with the Pacers practice of crashing the boards.
However, the question is how will adapt to a lesser role with the Pacers than he had with the Suns. Last year Scola played in the top five used of Phoenix's 5 man units. Hanbrough averaged 16 minutes with the Pacers. Scola will in theory be losing roughly 10 minutes of play, depending on how coach Frank Vogel uses him. Donahue expects Scola to split time the 96 minutes the bigs get with Hibbert (28.7 mpg) and West (33.4 mpg), leaving 62.1 to be split between Mahimi at the five, (16.5 mpg). That leaves just 17.4 minutes to split between Scola and Copeland. Scola did play some center for the Suns, but I doubt Vogel will put him there very much, he didn't with Hansbrough. Even he he gets the bulk of those minutes, like Psycho-T did, that's 10 minutes less than he had in Phoenix.
 |
| Luis Scola Shot Performance |
When it comes to USG%, Scola (23.3) and Hansbrough's (20.6) numbers are compatible, so as far as role goes, I think Scola will be fine as long as he doesn't mind the reduced minutes
Scola will also open up the paint if his shooting stays the same. Scola will shoot plenty from the paint but Hansbrough shot almost 70% of his shots from the paint, where as Scola has a near 50/50 split between the paint and mid-range. This is a big change over someone like Hansbrough, and maybe it will open up the floor, but that makes it much harder to judge how he will perform.
Better? Worse? Meh?: Better, but with a lot of questions with the minutes being cut for Scola, and how he adjusts. But assuming that works out, the shot performance chart to the right should tell you why this should be a drastic improvement. The yellow means his FG% Comparable to league average, and green is above. When Luis pulls up from mid-range, he's making 45.66% of those shots. When you look at Tyler's shot performance chart, you see almost all red, and in the restricted area Hansbrough may shoot around the league average, but Luis shoots two percentage better from that area. For sure the software is an upgrade at PF position but seeing how it integrates with the current operating system is yet to be seen.
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Who is Lance Stephenson? Answer: Lance Stephenson (Part 3)
The honorable Tim Donahue asked on Twitter last week who exactly Lance Stephenson compares to.
After looking at the numbers, I have to come to one conclusion: He is Lance Stephenson.
He may attack like Jeremy Lin or Tyreke Evans at times, but his advanced statistics are more like Tony Allen's according to basketball reference.com.
But all those are flawed comparisons for many reasons. Lin is a distributor, Evans plays better defense, and Tony Allen is the Grindfather and doesn't shoot from deep like Lance is capable of. Lin and Evans are used much more in the offense as far as the Usage percentage goes and he is more in line with Allen in that regard, but I don't think Lance and Tony have all that much in common other than shot their inside shot selection and performance from there. Lance's use or range makes him more like Lin or Evans. One of the comparisons BR gave was Smush Parker (different shot selection) or Don Cheney, but considering he played pre-three point line, it seems just as hard to compare him as it does with Allen.
If any one has any other suggestions I'd be interested to know, because so far I can find a guy I'd feel that comfortable saying is his doppelganger.
Lance is his own animal in a lot of ways. He's got the irrational confidence of J.R. Smith, a defensive game comparable to Tyreke Evans, shot selection like Jeremy Lin, and finishes (better) like Tony Allen.
To see the stream-of-consciousness that got me here, look at Part 1 and Part 2.
After looking at the numbers, I have to come to one conclusion: He is Lance Stephenson.
He may attack like Jeremy Lin or Tyreke Evans at times, but his advanced statistics are more like Tony Allen's according to basketball reference.com.
But all those are flawed comparisons for many reasons. Lin is a distributor, Evans plays better defense, and Tony Allen is the Grindfather and doesn't shoot from deep like Lance is capable of. Lin and Evans are used much more in the offense as far as the Usage percentage goes and he is more in line with Allen in that regard, but I don't think Lance and Tony have all that much in common other than shot their inside shot selection and performance from there. Lance's use or range makes him more like Lin or Evans. One of the comparisons BR gave was Smush Parker (different shot selection) or Don Cheney, but considering he played pre-three point line, it seems just as hard to compare him as it does with Allen.
If any one has any other suggestions I'd be interested to know, because so far I can find a guy I'd feel that comfortable saying is his doppelganger.
Lance is his own animal in a lot of ways. He's got the irrational confidence of J.R. Smith, a defensive game comparable to Tyreke Evans, shot selection like Jeremy Lin, and finishes (better) like Tony Allen.
To see the stream-of-consciousness that got me here, look at Part 1 and Part 2.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Lance Stephenson vs Tony Allen (The search for Lance, Part 2)
Well, if you read my last post, I wasted a lot of time trying to figure out who we can really compare Lance Stephenson to.
While some of the players listed as comparison to Lance may have certain similarities, either their game was entirely different (J.R. Smith), maybe had greater roles on the offense and defense (Jeremy Lin or Tyreke Evans) or played to long ago to be relevant for comparison (Don Chaney).
I began to think about the Pacers style. How it is fueled by big player. Grit and Grind... wait, isn't that the Memphis Grizzlies slogan?
So, is Lance anything like Tony Allen?
Here are the numbers from 2012-2013
Ok, not perfect, but somewhat similar. While some of Lin and Evans numbers were similar too, the roles on the court seem to be vastly different. With Stephenson and Allen, there are Usage percentage similarities, but there are some difference in minutes player (no comparison is perfect), so let's look at the Per 36 minute stats.
These are closer in line, but we did have to cheat a bit to do that. Let's look at where their shots come from.
While some of the players listed as comparison to Lance may have certain similarities, either their game was entirely different (J.R. Smith), maybe had greater roles on the offense and defense (Jeremy Lin or Tyreke Evans) or played to long ago to be relevant for comparison (Don Chaney).
I began to think about the Pacers style. How it is fueled by big player. Grit and Grind... wait, isn't that the Memphis Grizzlies slogan?
So, is Lance anything like Tony Allen?
Here are the numbers from 2012-2013
Ok, not perfect, but somewhat similar. While some of Lin and Evans numbers were similar too, the roles on the court seem to be vastly different. With Stephenson and Allen, there are Usage percentage similarities, but there are some difference in minutes player (no comparison is perfect), so let's look at the Per 36 minute stats.
These are closer in line, but we did have to cheat a bit to do that. Let's look at where their shots come from.
Lance Stephenson
Tony Allen
And this is what they do from there. (Red = below league average, yellow = average, and green = above league average)
Lance Stephenson
Tony Allen
I'll admit this is comparison is far from perfect, but I feel like where Lance is more like Tony Allen with a 3 than a Lin or Evans. He's a going to try to score, he isn't looking to pass. Lance may do it more (Allen's 7.6 to Lance's 16.2), but compared to Lin and Evans, they aren't distributors.
Admitting Tony is a better defender, or at least appears to be at times.and doesn't even shoot threes, but the way they attack is paint is very similar.
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Who is Lance Stephenson? (I don't know)
(This is more of a stream-of-consciousness post of how I got to my possible conclusion, do if you want to skip there rambling and cut to the chase, click here)
On Twitter Saturday morning the esteemed @TimDonahue8p9s asked who does Pacer Lance Stephenson compare to? My immediate and uninformed (Well, only informed by Lance's irrational confidence) made me think of J.R. Smith. However as Tim pointed out, that's a terrible comparison.
(Quick Note: I'm using the third season or career of every player to try to get a comparison for who and what Lance is and might become. I'll try to note which is used in each one.)
You win Round 1, Tim.
So other than being knuckleheads and irrationally confident, J.R. and Lance are nowhere near the same player. Then who is Lance Stephen (potentially) going to be?
This isn't meant to be definitive, end-all, who-is-Lance, but maybe it gets us closer to it. I don't have SynergySports scouting and stats (yet), but this should help draw us closer.
Here are some of the other suggested comparisons.
Let's take a look at this closer at this last season.
Both guys are shooting guards that are more likely to shoot than to pass, as they have lower assist percentages than Lin and Evans. Both are starts playing around 30 mins of time, Allen a little less than Stephenson.
On Twitter Saturday morning the esteemed @TimDonahue8p9s asked who does Pacer Lance Stephenson compare to? My immediate and uninformed (Well, only informed by Lance's irrational confidence) made me think of J.R. Smith. However as Tim pointed out, that's a terrible comparison.
Tim and his stupid data was right. J.R. doesn't like to play in the restricted area. Let's look at the charts, shall we?@CowboyOnPatrol Lance got 43% of his looks in the RA, while JR only 21%. Lance's eFG% outside of RA was only 39.6%, JR's 48.9%
(Quick Note: I'm using the third season or career of every player to try to get a comparison for who and what Lance is and might become. I'll try to note which is used in each one.)
J.R. Smith
Lance Stephenson
While the two have similar eFG% numbers (50.92 vs 50.97), Lances come from inside much more the J.R., and Smith likes to use his range.
You win Round 1, Tim.
So other than being knuckleheads and irrationally confident, J.R. and Lance are nowhere near the same player. Then who is Lance Stephen (potentially) going to be?
This isn't meant to be definitive, end-all, who-is-Lance, but maybe it gets us closer to it. I don't have SynergySports scouting and stats (yet), but this should help draw us closer.
With a quick jump to basketball-reference.com, we can see some the advanced numbers for Mr. Stephenson.
So instead of me taking some more wild guesses at this point we'll see who BR thinks Lance might be.
Smush Parker, Don Chaney, and Ernie Calverley pop up as possible suspects (through 3 years), even Jeremy Lin shows up as a career comparison.
Let's start by looking at the shot selection because that's where many of the suggestion begin to show cracks. Don Chaney, Ernie Calverley don't have shot charts available on NBAStats, but their TS% and eFG% are available.
For their careers, Chaney his eFG and TS% is .482 and .427, while Calverley's are .388 and .291, so we can cross Ernie off the list. Chaney and Lance's rebounding are somewhat similar (7.7 to 7.4). There is a divide between their ORB% and DRB%. Lance's numbers are 2.4 and 12.2 vs Don's 7.4 and 8.0. However I will partially dismiss this because Lance isn't suppose to be a factor in the Pacers offensive rebounding at times. The Pacers use the bigs and the weak side wing to crash while the other drops back for transition defense, so Paul George and Stephenson's numbers are going to get hurt because some plays the aren't even trying to take part.
Both are also decent assist guys.with Chaney at 14.4 AST% compared to Lance's 16.7. Another thing is their STL% and USG% are exactly the same.
Enough Chaney for now, but his numbers are similar so let's keep that in mind.
Enough Chaney for now, but his numbers are similar so let's keep that in mind.
Let's look a some of the other suggestions short charts with Lance in mind. Remember that Lance shoots almost half his shots in the restricted area, and about 17% from the right side from 24+ feet.
Jeremy Lin
Latrell Sprewell
Smush Parker
Tyreke Evans
At a glance, it looks like we can toss Spre because he both of the 8-16 feet areas to the right and left, where as Lance goes almost exclusively through the middle. Smush is gone because he wasn't jamming it through the middle all the time and shot a decent bit from range.
That leaves us with Lin and Evans so let's look at the numbers again, this time through three seasons.
Here is what I can see
- Stephenson is a better finisher, he shoots above the league average in the RA, where Lin and Evans are more close to the league average.
- One thing I notice is Lance has two-thirds as many shots from each man's third seasons. Tyreke and Jeremy shoot almost 900 times each, Lance shot 598 times.
- Lin works in a the league's most fast pace team with Houston's 98.6 Pace, while the Evans worked in Sacramento's seventh ranked and 96.3 paced team. The Pacers were one of the league's slowest at 92.8.
- Lance is the least used of the three. Lance is used on 15.2 of the Pacers possessions while Lin is used 20.8% and Evans 23.8. Even though Lance was part of the league's best 5-Man unit (+288), he was often the last option as far as usage tells us.
- Lance's assist percentage when he gets the ball is in the teens while Evan's and Lin's are in the mid and high 20's. Possessions end in Lance Stephenson.
- Even is you try to calibrate all the numbers with the Per 36 min stats, Jeremy and Evans still are doing more.
I'm going to be honest, all this isn't making it much clearer. He may take his shots from the same areas as Lin and Evans to a certain extent, but his role within the team is obviously different. As shooters they may be similar, but that isn't telling us much. I don't have some of the Synergy Stats that maybe could tell us more, but that isn't happening (yet). Chaney seemed to have similar numbers, but I don't have a shooting chart or anything to really tell me where those shots were coming from, and honestly, that's just a different era of basketball entirely, he shot one three in his NBA career. So let's go back to the modern era, with Lin, Evans and company.
Back to the charts!
Lance Stephenson
Jeremy Lin
Tyreke Evans
As you can see, Lance is a better shooter up the middle. He's above league average in shoot when he's at the top of the arc, key, or in the paint.
Yup, I'm still lost on who Lance Stephenson is, but maybe he is closer to Jeremy Lin and Tyreke Evans, or somewhere in between.
Yup, I'm still lost on who Lance Stephenson is, but maybe he is closer to Jeremy Lin and Tyreke Evans, or somewhere in between.
That's the most important thing to remember. Lance is Lance. He's isn't going to be J.R. Smith, even if he's got that sort of Swagger. He isn't the distributor than Lin or Evans is, but he's a better shooter when he drives straight ahead. He's going to be hard to quantify because the Pacers play a different brand of basketball than many NBA teams. The Pacers play big, like the Grizzlies. Wait, is he Tony Allen? These are career numbers for both.
Wait, did I waste all that time on Red Herrings? (Yes, and your time too)Let's take a look at this closer at this last season.
Both guys are shooting guards that are more likely to shoot than to pass, as they have lower assist percentages than Lin and Evans. Both are starts playing around 30 mins of time, Allen a little less than Stephenson.
We may be on to something here. I'm going to explore this more in my next post.
Or ya know, skip to Part 3, where I just clean this all up.
Or ya know, skip to Part 3, where I just clean this all up.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Game 5: Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks
Indiana missed a chance to get a win. The defense missed their assignments on the Hawks final offensive play, allowing an easy basket. Wouldn't we see this a few days later with the Timberwolves?
1st Quarter
Sam Young can't cover Josh Smith, just a size mismatch. The Hawks were going to milk this, Pacers starting to double team and bring help, but this can't last long. West comes into the game playing aggressively after looking the opposite. But for all the good on offense, they are allowing Smith to either A: Smith scores on Young, (4-4 against him so far) or he finds a cutter when the double team comes.
2nd Quarter
The bench is getting out scored 21-6 at one point in the second. I know we aren't as deep as some think we are, but is it that hard to hope for one or two bench players to be productive? With the 1st unit back in the Pacers are starting to cut back into the lead, but it feels like the offense has to be perfect to keep in the game. The Pacers cut the gap late in the second quarter with transition baskets and an offense that passes the ball to create offense. On two of Hill's three first half 3-pointers, they came off a pass with no dribble. Simply, passes create points. One good thing defensively was Indiana started putting a double, or bigger men on Smith. Also, on the Hawks final play, the Pacers clogged the lane to make sure that Jeff Teague couldn't pass down low for an easy basket. This also allowed Hibbert to step out and put a hand in Teague's face to contest and make it a miss. Smart play to end the half and cut it to a one point deficit.
3rd Quarter
Lance Stephenson seems to be a decent from the arc, knocked down a long distant shot, creating turnovers, although the -3 +/- in the game isn't the most encouraging, but how much of that is on him?
Aside: Is it be, or does Devon Harris kinda look like Ludacris? Just a note, Hibbert needs to be more aggressive. Let's some plays get away from him by just not moving to the ball or basket sometime. Seems like he's leaving some points on the floor. Anyway back to the action. Watching this now, it looks like Indiana does better when they get out after missed shots. The tempo seems to favor them. Hill made three of his four 3-pointers in the game off passes. By my count, he missed the ones where he tried to create his own space. Small sample size, but it is easier to score off the pass (He also hit a long-two off as pass as well.) Watching this replay, it hard to see how the Pacers lost it when they play like this in the third quarter.
4th Quarter
Seems like every team trying tries to force the Pacers away from the top of the arc, but so far the Pacers are doing a good job at finding the open man.
But then everything fall apart, bad shots by Indiana followed by Atlanta taking smart threes spell trouble. Despite that, this was still a game the Pacers could of, should of found some baskets late. Anything good I said about Stephenson is gone as he picked bad times to launch bad shots. These mental errors down the stretch are brutal, while Kyle Kourver and the rest of the Hawks are picking their spot and creating space of screens and double screens. Teague would get a three with a minute left after the Pacers collapsed in the paint. Stephenson redeems himself a bit with a three after running underneath and out to the left side thanks to a set of trio of screens.
The Lou Williams escape through the congestions, not sure if West or Paul George was suppose to cover him, of there was suppose to be a switch, but no real excuses for a team that was suppose to be the second best in the East.
One thing to remember about this team is that with the exception of David West, no one on this team (Other than the injured Danny Granger, who is 29) is older than 27. This is a young team with seven new players. It will take time for this team to come together. Any maybe this team is still too young to expect consistency out of.
1st Quarter
Sam Young can't cover Josh Smith, just a size mismatch. The Hawks were going to milk this, Pacers starting to double team and bring help, but this can't last long. West comes into the game playing aggressively after looking the opposite. But for all the good on offense, they are allowing Smith to either A: Smith scores on Young, (4-4 against him so far) or he finds a cutter when the double team comes.
2nd Quarter
The bench is getting out scored 21-6 at one point in the second. I know we aren't as deep as some think we are, but is it that hard to hope for one or two bench players to be productive? With the 1st unit back in the Pacers are starting to cut back into the lead, but it feels like the offense has to be perfect to keep in the game. The Pacers cut the gap late in the second quarter with transition baskets and an offense that passes the ball to create offense. On two of Hill's three first half 3-pointers, they came off a pass with no dribble. Simply, passes create points. One good thing defensively was Indiana started putting a double, or bigger men on Smith. Also, on the Hawks final play, the Pacers clogged the lane to make sure that Jeff Teague couldn't pass down low for an easy basket. This also allowed Hibbert to step out and put a hand in Teague's face to contest and make it a miss. Smart play to end the half and cut it to a one point deficit.
3rd Quarter
Lance Stephenson seems to be a decent from the arc, knocked down a long distant shot, creating turnovers, although the -3 +/- in the game isn't the most encouraging, but how much of that is on him?
Aside: Is it be, or does Devon Harris kinda look like Ludacris? Just a note, Hibbert needs to be more aggressive. Let's some plays get away from him by just not moving to the ball or basket sometime. Seems like he's leaving some points on the floor. Anyway back to the action. Watching this now, it looks like Indiana does better when they get out after missed shots. The tempo seems to favor them. Hill made three of his four 3-pointers in the game off passes. By my count, he missed the ones where he tried to create his own space. Small sample size, but it is easier to score off the pass (He also hit a long-two off as pass as well.) Watching this replay, it hard to see how the Pacers lost it when they play like this in the third quarter.
4th Quarter
Seems like every team trying tries to force the Pacers away from the top of the arc, but so far the Pacers are doing a good job at finding the open man.
But then everything fall apart, bad shots by Indiana followed by Atlanta taking smart threes spell trouble. Despite that, this was still a game the Pacers could of, should of found some baskets late. Anything good I said about Stephenson is gone as he picked bad times to launch bad shots. These mental errors down the stretch are brutal, while Kyle Kourver and the rest of the Hawks are picking their spot and creating space of screens and double screens. Teague would get a three with a minute left after the Pacers collapsed in the paint. Stephenson redeems himself a bit with a three after running underneath and out to the left side thanks to a set of trio of screens.
The Lou Williams escape through the congestions, not sure if West or Paul George was suppose to cover him, of there was suppose to be a switch, but no real excuses for a team that was suppose to be the second best in the East.
One thing to remember about this team is that with the exception of David West, no one on this team (Other than the injured Danny Granger, who is 29) is older than 27. This is a young team with seven new players. It will take time for this team to come together. Any maybe this team is still too young to expect consistency out of.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Game 4: Pacers at San Antonio Spurs
This is all you really need to see.
Not a single player had a positive +/-.
The Pacers entire team struggled, and there was little to know good to take out of the game. Play looked sloppy and disconnected. It was 1-on-5 most the time in offense, and it doesn't take an expert to know that passing the ball creates open looks, but that wasn't happening.
1st Quarter
In Indiana first three games, they had been collapsing into the paint often, making it hard on opposing offenses to drive the lane, but also making them susceptible to kicking the ball out to an open shooter. Early on it didn't matter as the Spurs were shooting 3-13. But eventually the tempo of the game increased San Antonio began to get in rhythm and jumped out to a lead as Indiana was playing hero ball on offense and not getting open shots. First possession when they stopped doing that lead to a Gerald Green 3-point basket.
The Pacers were not doing a good job of creating offense and should be thankful the Spurs couldn't find their own offensive rhythm, only down 26-18 to end the first quarter. Simply, San Antonio played better team basketball, keeping the Pacers offense shooting at 26%, to the Spurs 46%. But rebounding was even at 14.
2nd Quarter
We're losing by 20 POINTS!?!?!? Yup, Indiana looks like they are going to get blown out of the gym. However, The Pacer offense began to get their shots to fall, surprising without really coming together as an offense. However, the defense finally stepped up slow and eventually stop the San Antonio offense (Missed the last six field goals before half). Somehow the Pacers are coming back to close the gap to 47-38 at the intermission. The Pacers 13-2 run certainly helps, but as we wait for halftime to end, you have to wonder if they'll be able to cut the gap and keep the game from getting out of hand. Indiana needs to continue forcing the ball into the lane and getting to the foul line. David West was the only one hitting shots from range, hitting his two shots from the top of the key, everyone else had to create their offense from short range. Going 9/10 at the line and out rebounding the Spurs 14-8 helps as well.
3rd Quarter
The Spurs look happy driving to the top of the key and then making their play, usually by passing out. The Pacers continue to just to shoot and try to create their own offense. Of course when they do pass it always seems to be a bad one. Any momentum the Pacers had is gone in two minutes. I wish there was something to point to, but the players just looked unmotivated. Time and time again the Pacers try to play 1-on-5 basketball. Do we really need Danny Granger this badly? On the plus side, I at least like the aggressiveness of Tyler Hansbrough. He's not the most talented Pacer, but you know he's going to play physical ball and forced teams to foul him if they don't put up a fight. He gets in the game and makes Bonner push and shove (and foul) to try to get position on defense. Also, I miss Stephen Jackson, strangely.
4th Quarter
This...is... ugh. What am I suppose to say? It was the same thing all game long. Not playing team offense, the Spurs did a good job or trapping and deciding which players they were going to let shoot. I'm not even going to finish watching this replay. The Pacers look like a lottery team tonight.
Not a single player had a positive +/-.
The Pacers entire team struggled, and there was little to know good to take out of the game. Play looked sloppy and disconnected. It was 1-on-5 most the time in offense, and it doesn't take an expert to know that passing the ball creates open looks, but that wasn't happening.
1st Quarter
In Indiana first three games, they had been collapsing into the paint often, making it hard on opposing offenses to drive the lane, but also making them susceptible to kicking the ball out to an open shooter. Early on it didn't matter as the Spurs were shooting 3-13. But eventually the tempo of the game increased San Antonio began to get in rhythm and jumped out to a lead as Indiana was playing hero ball on offense and not getting open shots. First possession when they stopped doing that lead to a Gerald Green 3-point basket.
The Pacers were not doing a good job of creating offense and should be thankful the Spurs couldn't find their own offensive rhythm, only down 26-18 to end the first quarter. Simply, San Antonio played better team basketball, keeping the Pacers offense shooting at 26%, to the Spurs 46%. But rebounding was even at 14.
2nd Quarter
We're losing by 20 POINTS!?!?!? Yup, Indiana looks like they are going to get blown out of the gym. However, The Pacer offense began to get their shots to fall, surprising without really coming together as an offense. However, the defense finally stepped up slow and eventually stop the San Antonio offense (Missed the last six field goals before half). Somehow the Pacers are coming back to close the gap to 47-38 at the intermission. The Pacers 13-2 run certainly helps, but as we wait for halftime to end, you have to wonder if they'll be able to cut the gap and keep the game from getting out of hand. Indiana needs to continue forcing the ball into the lane and getting to the foul line. David West was the only one hitting shots from range, hitting his two shots from the top of the key, everyone else had to create their offense from short range. Going 9/10 at the line and out rebounding the Spurs 14-8 helps as well.
3rd Quarter
The Spurs look happy driving to the top of the key and then making their play, usually by passing out. The Pacers continue to just to shoot and try to create their own offense. Of course when they do pass it always seems to be a bad one. Any momentum the Pacers had is gone in two minutes. I wish there was something to point to, but the players just looked unmotivated. Time and time again the Pacers try to play 1-on-5 basketball. Do we really need Danny Granger this badly? On the plus side, I at least like the aggressiveness of Tyler Hansbrough. He's not the most talented Pacer, but you know he's going to play physical ball and forced teams to foul him if they don't put up a fight. He gets in the game and makes Bonner push and shove (and foul) to try to get position on defense. Also, I miss Stephen Jackson, strangely.
4th Quarter
This...is... ugh. What am I suppose to say? It was the same thing all game long. Not playing team offense, the Spurs did a good job or trapping and deciding which players they were going to let shoot. I'm not even going to finish watching this replay. The Pacers look like a lottery team tonight.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Game 3: Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers
(Quick bit of housekeeping: I got behind so some of the previous game breakdowns will be quick summaries instead of longer ones.)
The Pacers defense seems to want to collapse to the paint, making them susceptible to kick outs for threes. The Kings seemed to be the first team (then two days later, the Spurs with more success) that began to almost rely on Indiana's tenaciousness to create open shots. One would think that with someone like Hibbert protecting the paint, there wouldn't be the need to collapse in like that. While Sacramento struggled and shot only .363 percent from the floor. This certainly helps give the Pacers their 67-47 rebounding advantage in the game, one wonders how well this strategy will work against teams with better shooters. (Say, the Spurs?)
On offense the Pacers went to the post as usual. Often relying on West to either make a jumper or pass out of a double team. (7-21 shooting, only 1 assist. However, thanks to his defense, his +/- was +21)
It was good to see the Pacers score with Paul George late in the game to tie. The Pacers went with a low four to create isolation for George, and he had no problem creating space for himself and knocking down a three pointer.
The big thing I took away from this game was that the Pacers should have lost. The Kings had so many opportunities to take the lead late in the game, but they couldn't get their good shots to fall. A day later we would see the Spurs exploit all these short comings.
On offense the Pacers went to the post as usual. Often relying on West to either make a jumper or pass out of a double team. (7-21 shooting, only 1 assist. However, thanks to his defense, his +/- was +21)
It was good to see the Pacers score with Paul George late in the game to tie. The Pacers went with a low four to create isolation for George, and he had no problem creating space for himself and knocking down a three pointer.
The big thing I took away from this game was that the Pacers should have lost. The Kings had so many opportunities to take the lead late in the game, but they couldn't get their good shots to fall. A day later we would see the Spurs exploit all these short comings.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Game 1: Pacers vs Raptors
It is much too early for me to make any grand and bold
statements, so I’ll leave it to a group of experts to look at the storylines
from the Pacers win. However, I will begin my work to brea k down the some of the Pacers' X’s and
O’s.
Summary
The Pacers starters efficient, we knew that last year as West and company showed that their adjusted +/- is well above any other starting group in the league.With Danny Granger out West stepped up his game with 25 points, and 14 important ones in the fourth when Indiana had been flat out struggling. Roy Hibbert was a no show as the defense closed him down, but it may have come at the expense of letting West run free. The 19 Pacers turnovers came mostly from the second unit, but considering this is game one of eighty-two, there is no need to panic yet. Most of the team posted healthy Player Efficiency Ratings. Stats aside, the stretch in the mid-third quarter to mid-fourth was not good, to say the least. They Pacers second unit will to come together if the Pacers want to compete with the heavyweights this season.
The Pacers starters efficient, we knew that last year as West and company showed that their adjusted +/- is well above any other starting group in the league.With Danny Granger out West stepped up his game with 25 points, and 14 important ones in the fourth when Indiana had been flat out struggling. Roy Hibbert was a no show as the defense closed him down, but it may have come at the expense of letting West run free. The 19 Pacers turnovers came mostly from the second unit, but considering this is game one of eighty-two, there is no need to panic yet. Most of the team posted healthy Player Efficiency Ratings. Stats aside, the stretch in the mid-third quarter to mid-fourth was not good, to say the least. They Pacers second unit will to come together if the Pacers want to compete with the heavyweights this season.
1st Quarter
As pointed out before on other Pacers blogs, Indiana has a habit of starting strong, faltering as the first quarter ends and the second
begins, then turning it back on at the end of the game. Tonight was no different. With the
starting five in the game, the Pacers looked organized and had no problem working the
ball towards the basket and using Roy Hibbert to create chances. Hibbert went
4-6 in the first quarter, with four of those chances coming in the post with
his back to the basket. Each time he
spun towards the basket (right twice, left twice). The defense gave him the
room to choose his path, and he seemed to favor the spin towards the basket
early on. Pau l
George had 10 points to Hibberts nine, so offensively things looked good for
the Pacers.
However, as the bench came in, chaos seemed to ensue. Ian
Mahinmi doesn’t provide the same threat down low and Ind iaTyler
Hansbrough who seemed serviceable and played well enough on defense.
However, looking at the numbers, the Raptors only shot 36%
from the field, so maybe the defense was doing better than I think. The five
turnovers aren’t going to help anything though.
2nd Quarter
The Pacers were still getting beat by the Raptors second
unit, but once Hibbert and the 1st
unit cycled back in India nabasel ine drive by George Hill, the
second on a pass to Pau l
George thanks to a Hill screen to help clear the way. In this third real post
chance, Hibbert quickly turned baseline for an easy bucket against Jonas
Valanciunas. The Pacers were out
rebounded though, helping explain why the teams went end tied despite Ind ia
The Pacers decided to run a double screen for Paul George
after he inbounded the ball to George Hill. George Hill held the ball until
around 14 seconds left and Paul George set the play in motion as he ran by a
double screen set by Hansbrough and Hibbert at the foul line.
The play’s success was marginal as a
collision of the Raptors double team on Green ruined the fact that Toronto had managed to
sniff out the play (DeMar DeRozan tried jumping the route, colliding with Kyle Lowry.). Green’s shot was too hard, but Green did make up on the
other in with a block to leave the game tied 48-48 at the half.
We’ll keep an eye out to see if they run the high double
screen play again.
3rd Quarter
Nothing significantly different. The Pacers offense tried to work Hibbert in the post. Hibbert spun baseline every time as the defense defended the lane, and it worked to stifle Hibbert. Hibbert missed four attempts but did hit West on a baseline pass for an assist.
4th Quarter
Toronto begins to double team the ball at the top of the key mainly, also running a screen and roll defense. However, the Pacers passing improved down the stretch and Indiana only had one fourth quarter turnover. They had 18 in the game.
On the George Hill game winning basket, the Pacers chose to run an iso, with West feigning a pick and roll to the left of the paint. Hill took the lane and shot from around eight feet out to earn the Pacers the victory.
After the inbound pass, George Hill dribbles at the top of the arc while all but West faded to the far side of the court.
West feigns the screen and rolls to the left side of the paint, leaving a wide open lane as Bargnani is forced to respect the red hot West and cover his man, leaving Hill and Lowry one one one again.
With Hibbert bracketed by Valanciuns and Alan Anderson, and West also occupied, George Hill drives the lane and shoots before anyone can rotate into the to provide help for Lowry. Hill hits the runner and the Pacers go on to win.
Nothing significantly different. The Pacers offense tried to work Hibbert in the post. Hibbert spun baseline every time as the defense defended the lane, and it worked to stifle Hibbert. Hibbert missed four attempts but did hit West on a baseline pass for an assist.
4th Quarter
Toronto begins to double team the ball at the top of the key mainly, also running a screen and roll defense. However, the Pacers passing improved down the stretch and Indiana only had one fourth quarter turnover. They had 18 in the game.
On the George Hill game winning basket, the Pacers chose to run an iso, with West feigning a pick and roll to the left of the paint. Hill took the lane and shot from around eight feet out to earn the Pacers the victory.
After the inbound pass, George Hill dribbles at the top of the arc while all but West faded to the far side of the court.
As the clock hits 10 seconds left, Hill begins to lean into his defender, Kyle Lowery, and West start drifting towards the two as if he is going to set the pick.
With Hibbert bracketed by Valanciuns and Alan Anderson, and West also occupied, George Hill drives the lane and shoots before anyone can rotate into the to provide help for Lowry. Hill hits the runner and the Pacers go on to win.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)